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According to Rabobank's Global Pork Quarterly report, China aims to cut its sow herd to address oversupply, targeting a reduction of 1 million head by leading companies between September 2025 and January 2026. Combined with the reduction by medium-sized players, the Chinese sow herd is projected to decline to 39 million head in 2026, down from 40.3 million head in September 2025. In the U.S., sow rebuilding remains slow, given biosecurity challenges. The EU faces rising pressures from ASF outbreaks in wild boars in Spain, from November 2025, and from China’s anti-dumping duties, following only limited sow herd growth in 2025. Rabobank expects sufficient supply to keep prices subdued in the first half of the year, with tighter supply in the second half supporting a price rebound. Across the globe, productivity improvement remains a key focus, as producers navigate ongoing challenges.
Trade is expected to remain volatile due to policy changes. Global pork trade showed an uneven performance in 2025, as Brazil recorded 12% export growth, while other key exporting countries, such as the U.S. and Canada, saw single digit declines. Into 2026, major importing countries, including China and Mexico, are adjusting import policies. Mexico will introduce an import quota to non-FTA suppliers and launch anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into U.S. pork, while China imposes anti-dumping duties on EU pork imports. Japan and the Philippines, major importers, still ban Spanish pork due to ASF concerns. All these developments suggest trade volatility will continue in 2026.
Herd health remains a challenge in 2026. ASF continues to spread in Vietnam and the Philippines, hindering local production recovery. Although ASF has not affected the domestic herd in Spain, the industry faces increased pressure from stricter biosecurity and disease control measures. PRRS continues to weigh on production in the US and Mexico.
January 29, 2026/ Rabobank.
https://www.rabobank.com
